I am the Sports Editor for a sports news and gambling site. I have quite a few years practical experience of gambling, sports journalism and study of mathematics. Am I a gambling professional? Nicely, I guess you could say that.
There are innumerable so-called gambling professionals prepared to dish out information of their systems to ‘beat the bookie’ or to make a second revenue from gambling, for a value of course. I will not do that. I will merely give you information and facts about bookmakers, odds and gambling for you to use (or neglect) as you see match.
The first factor to mention is that the vast majority of individuals who engage in gambling will be net losers over time. This is the pretty purpose there are so lots of bookmakers creating so a lot funds all through the planet.
Whilst bookmakers can sometimes take big hits, for instance if a favourite wins the Grand National, they spread their threat so broadly and they set up markets that incorporate a margin, so they will constantly make a profit more than the medium to long term, if not the quick term. That is, as long as they got their sums correct.
When setting their odds for a unique occasion, bookmakers need to initial assess the probability of that event occurring. To do this they us many statistical models based on information collated over years, sometime decades, about the sport and group/competitor in question. Of course, if sport was 100% predictable, it would soon drop its appeal, and even though the bookies are typically spot on with their assessments of the probability of an occasion, they are occasionally way off the mark, merely for the reason that a match or contest goes against conventional wisdom and statistical likelihood.
Just look at any sport and you will locate an occasion when the underdog triumphs against all the odds, literally. Wimbledon beating the then mighty Liverpool in the FA Cup Final of 1988, for instance, or the USA beating the then mighty USSR at ice hockey in the 1980 Olympics are two examples of when you would have got handsome odds on the underdog. And could have won a decent wedge.
The huge bookmakers spend a lot of time and cash making certain they have the suitable odds that assure they take into account the perceived probability of the event, and then add that added little bit that gives them the profit margin. So if an occasion has a probability of, say, 1/3, the odds that reflect that probability would be two/1. That is, two to one particular against that occasion occurring.
However, a bookie who set these odds would, over time, break even (assuming their stats are correct). So instead they would set the odds at, say, 6/four. In this way they have built in the margin that ensures, more than time, they will profit from people betting on this selection. It is the very same idea as a casino roulette.
So how can you spot the occasions when bookmakers have got it wrong? Properly, it really is simpler said than done, but far from not possible.
A single way is to get pretty great at mathematical modelling and set up a model that takes into account as several of the variables that impact the outcome of an event as probable. The difficulty with this tactic is that having said that complex the model, and nonetheless all-encompassing it seems, it can by no means account for the minutiae of variables relating to individual human states of mind. Irrespective of whether a golfer manages to hole a main-winning five foot putt on the 18th at St Andrews it is as significantly down to their concentration as to the climate or day of the week. Also, the maths can start finding quite darn complicated.
Alternatively you can discover your self a sporting niche. Bookmakers will concentrate their resources on the events that make them the most money, frequently discovered to be football (soccer), American football and horse racing. So attempting to beat the bookies though betting on a Manchester United v Chelsea match will be difficult. Unless you perform for a single of the clubs, or are married to a single of the players or managers, it is really probably the bookmaker setting the odds will have much more details than you.
On the other hand, if you are betting on non-league football, or badminton, or crown green bowls, it is possible, by way of challenging perform reading lots of stats, and common information and facts gathering, you can get started to get an edge over bookies (if they even set odds for such factors, which a lot of do).
And what do you do when you have an edge in data terms? You follow the worth.
Value betting is exactly where you back a choice at odds that are higher than the actual probability of an event occurring. So for instance, if you assess the probability of a unique non-league football team (Grimsby Town, say) winning their subsequent football match as 1/3 or 33%, and you locate a bookmaker who has set the odds of 3/1, you have a worth bet on your hands. The explanation being, odds of three/1 (excluding the margin built in by the bookie) suggest a probability of 1/4 or 25%. The bookie, in your now learned opinion, has underrated Grimsby’s chances, so you have effectively built in an 8% margin for yourself.
Of course Grimsby (as is normally the case) could fluff their lines and fail to win the match, and hence you could shed the bet. But if Nowgoal continue to seek out and bet on value bets, over time you will make a profit. If you do not, over time, you will shed. Straightforward.