Sports gambling can be very profitable if a person know the tricks this “smart money” gamblers employ to consistently make dollars. One of the primary secrets that clever money gamblers use will be knowing when NOT to be able to bet.
Here’s a perfect instance. We analyzed this Western side Va vs. Louisville match, and concluded of which West Virginia had the edge in the video game. However , I also realized that there have been a lot of random and unforeseen factors, and recommended to my clients that they do not wager on that game. Here is my personal analysis I released before the game:
West Florida or Louisville
This video game possesses all the symptoms of being one connected with the most effective games of the year, together with each teams coming into the game 7-0. It’s #3 placed West Virginia versus. #5 ranked Louisville, each with high-scoring offenses and stingy defenses. Last year’s video game was a classic, having Western Virginia coming backside from being down huge in the next fraction to winning inside overtime.
So what’s the action search like this year?
If this sport were turning into played from a good neutral field, West Va would certainly probably be a 4-6 stage favorite. Since the particular game is within Louisville, WVU is a 1-point under dog. Let’s see if can make sense…
West Virginia is usually on an unprecedented spin. They will haven’t lost since July. 1, 2005, heading 14-0 since they dropped to Las vegas Tech. Inside the last two seasons they’re 13-5 ATS too. They’re also 7-2 OBTAIN THE in their last dokuz games overall, and 8-2 ATS in their very last 10 HIGHWAY games.
These are some very outstanding stats that tilt typically the scales in favor of WVU for tonight’s games. Plus, often the included bonus offer is that WVU is definitely GETTING +1 point. This may not look like significantly, but in a in close proximity match-up this way, that extra point will make the distinction between the push and even a loss.
But what concerning Louisville?
Louisville’s statistics are almost as good because WVU’s -except when it comes to Louisville covering the point spread. In their particular previous 10 games, Louisville is simply 4-6 ATS. That will said, Louisville is even now 7-3 ATS within their previous 10 home games.
Together with if you’re leaning in direction of WVU, here’s a scary stat… Louisville hasn’t misplaced in your house since 12 18, 2003! During this present run Louisville is hitting 49. 5 points for every game at your home, while hitting only letting go of 15. 6 points per game in home. In case a person failed to do the math, that means since their particular last home decline they have already averaged beating their particular opposing team by simply about thirty four factors per game.
Even greater extraordinary, the average line in these games has only been recently 21 points. That method Louisville has beaten typically the divide, on average, by simply 13 details per game at home due to the fact 2003.
Wow… how can an individual not in favor of that?
Here’s precisely how…
Almost all of those stats had been developed during the 2004 season. Shock as to, 2006, Louisville has been nearer to fine than great. They already have had recent games in which they already have only scored twenty eight, 23, 24 points. These types of activities weren’t against Ohio Street. or Michigan. These people ended up against Cincinnati, Syracuse, together with Kansas St.
The bottom line is of which this is still some sort of close activity to contact. Nonetheless what I look with regard to is West Virginia’s defense to carry the working day. If majorsite , Syracuse, together with Kansas St. can most hold Louisville under 40 points, then there’s virtually no factor to think WVU can’t have one to this low to mid 20’s. My honest suggestion can be to lay off this game and not wager at all. There usually are better games this weekend with more simple rewards.
The final score in this game was Louisville 44, West Virginia 34. Lousiville won because West Va had 6 fumbles plus allowed Lousiville to return a good punt for a TD. The bottom line was that West Virginia’s border wasn’t so big they could very well still win soon after doing so many mistakes. By way of not betting on this particular game, people critical concerning gambling saved money they can put to better use on upcoming games.