I am the Sports Editor for a sports news and gambling website. I have a lot of years experience of gambling, sports journalism and study of mathematics. Am I a gambling specialist? Properly, I guess you could say that.
There are innumerable so-referred to as gambling professionals prepared to dish out info of their systems to ‘beat the bookie’ or to make a second income from gambling, for a price tag of course. I won’t do that. I will merely give you details about bookmakers, odds and gambling for you to use (or forget) as you see fit.
The first issue to mention is that the vast majority of persons who engage in gambling will be net losers over time. This is the pretty explanation there are so quite a few bookmakers producing so a lot income all through the globe.
Although bookmakers can sometimes take large hits, for instance if a favourite wins the Grand National, they spread their risk so widely and they set up markets that incorporate a margin, so they will always make a profit over the medium to lengthy term, if not the short term. That is, as long as they got their sums right.
When setting their odds for a specific occasion, bookmakers must first assess the probability of that occasion occurring. To do this they us many statistical models based on data collated more than years, sometime decades, about the sport and group/competitor in question. Of course, if sport was one hundred% predictable, it would quickly drop its appeal, and though the bookies are typically spot on with their assessments of the probability of an occasion, they are at times way off the mark, just for the reason that a match or contest goes against traditional wisdom and statistical likelihood.
Just appear at any sport and you will discover an occasion when the underdog triumphs against all the odds, literally. sportnews beating the then mighty Liverpool in the FA Cup Final of 1988, for instance, or the USA beating the then mighty USSR at ice hockey in the 1980 Olympics are two examples of when you would have got handsome odds on the underdog. And could have won a decent wedge.
The huge bookmakers invest a lot of time and cash making certain they have the right odds that guarantee they take into account the perceived probability of the occasion, and then add that further tiny bit that provides them the profit margin. So if an event has a probability of, say, 1/three, the odds that reflect that probability would be two/1. That is, two to 1 against that occasion occurring.
Nevertheless, a bookie who set these odds would, more than time, break even (assuming their stats are correct). So as an alternative they would set the odds at, say, 6/4. In this way they have built in the margin that guarantees, over time, they will profit from people betting on this selection. It is the exact same idea as a casino roulette.
So how can you spot the occasions when bookmakers have got it wrong? Nicely, it really is easier mentioned than accomplished, but far from impossible.
A single way is to get pretty fantastic at mathematical modelling and set up a model that requires into account as quite a few of the variables that impact the outcome of an event as doable. The challenge with this tactic is that even so complex the model, and nevertheless all-encompassing it appears, it can in no way account for the minutiae of variables relating to person human states of mind. Whether or not a golfer manages to hole a big-winning five foot putt on the 18th at St Andrews it is as substantially down to their concentration as to the weather or day of the week. Also, the maths can start out receiving fairly darn complicated.
Alternatively you can come across your self a sporting niche. Bookmakers will concentrate their sources on the events that make them the most dollars, normally found to be football (soccer), American football and horse racing. So attempting to beat the bookies though betting on a Manchester United v Chelsea match will be tough. Unless you perform for one particular of the clubs, or are married to a single of the players or managers, it is incredibly likely the bookmaker setting the odds will have a lot more data than you.
On the other hand, if you are betting on non-league football, or badminton, or crown green bowls, it is achievable, by way of difficult function reading lots of stats, and basic information and facts gathering, you can begin to achieve an edge more than bookies (if they even set odds for such items, which a lot of do).
And what do you do when you have an edge in information terms? You follow the worth.
Value betting is exactly where you back a selection at odds that are higher than the actual probability of an occasion occurring. So for instance, if you assess the probability of a certain non-league football group (Grimsby Town, say) winning their next football match as 1/three or 33%, and you find a bookmaker who has set the odds of three/1, you have a value bet on your hands. The explanation being, odds of 3/1 (excluding the margin built in by the bookie) suggest a probability of 1/four or 25%. The bookie, in your now learned opinion, has underrated Grimsby’s probabilities, so you have effectively built in an 8% margin for your self.
Of course Grimsby (as is generally the case) may fluff their lines and fail to win the match, and therefore you could drop the bet. But if you continue to seek out and bet on value bets, over time you will make a profit. If you do not, over time, you will drop. Straightforward.